We're excited to announce one of our most requested features: AI Race Predictions. Add an upcoming race to your calendar, and Transition will give you a predicted finish time—updated weekly as you train so you can see your progress toward race day.
How It Works
Race predictions in Transition are powered by the same AI that builds your training plan. Here's the process:
- Add your race — Tell us the event date, distance, and any relevant course details (elevation, conditions, etc.)
- Keep training — Continue following your plan and logging workouts as usual
- Watch your prediction update — Every week, we recalculate your predicted finish time based on your latest fitness data
The prediction isn't a static number pulled from a formula. It's a dynamic estimate that evolves alongside your training.
Predictions That Improve With You
Traditional race calculators use a single data point—usually a recent race result or time trial—to estimate your performance. The problem? They can't account for the weeks of training between now and race day.
Transition's predictions are different. Our AI analyzes:
- Your recent workout performance — Pace, power, heart rate response
- Training load and consistency — How much work you've been putting in
- Fitness trends — Whether you're improving, maintaining, or overreaching
- Time to race day — How your predicted fitness on race day compares to today
As race day approaches, the prediction becomes increasingly accurate. Early in your training block, there's more uncertainty—you might have a breakthrough month, or life might get in the way. But as the weeks pass and more data comes in, the confidence interval narrows.
Why Weekly Updates Matter
Fitness isn't linear. You might have a great week of training followed by a recovery week. You might get sick, travel, or nail a key workout that shows a fitness jump.
Weekly updates capture these fluctuations. Instead of a stale prediction from months ago, you always have a current estimate that reflects your actual readiness.
This also creates a powerful feedback loop. When you see your predicted time drop after a strong training week, it reinforces that the work is paying off. When life gets in the way and the prediction slides, it's a gentle reminder to get back on track.
What You Can Predict
Race predictions work for all the events Transition supports:
- Running — 5K through marathon and beyond
- Cycling — Time trials, gran fondos, and target segments
- Triathlon — Sprint through Ironman, with split predictions for each discipline
For multisport events, you'll see predictions for swim, bike, run, and overall finish time—all updated together as your training progresses.
Get Started
Adding a race takes less than a minute:
- Open Transition and go to your race calendar
- Tap "Add Race" and enter the event details
- Your first prediction will appear within 24 hours
From there, check back weekly to see how your predicted finish time evolves. Use it to set realistic goals, adjust your pacing strategy, or simply stay motivated as race day approaches.
The best part? This feature is included for all Transition members. No add-ons, no extra cost—just another way we're helping you train smarter and race faster.
Ready to see your predicted finish time? Add your next race today.
